Hong Kong, 9th March 2025
The March Hong Kong Jewellery Fairs—traditionally one of the most important trading windows in the global diamond calendar—opened to a quieter market than many in the trade had anticipated, with activity reflecting a cautious and increasingly selective environment for natural diamonds.

The first phase of the fair at AsiaWorld-Expo, which focuses on loose diamonds, gemstones and lab-grown goods, saw generally slow trading in natural diamonds. Buyers were highly selective, with the majority of interest concentrated in larger stones above 3 carats, particularly distinctive pieces and fancy cuts.

Demand for smaller commercial goods remained limited, reflecting continued caution among retailers and wholesalers managing inventory levels and responding to slower consumer demand in several key markets.

Selectivity Increasing in Natural Diamond Buying

For natural diamond traders, one of the clearest signals from the Hong Kong shows was the shift toward quality, rarity and differentiation. Buyers who were active focused on stones capable of standing out in a competitive retail environment—larger goods, unusual cuts and distinctive characteristics.

This trend reinforces a broader structural shift in the market: natural diamonds are increasingly competing on rarity and uniqueness, rather than purely on price-driven commercial categories.

Attendance Patterns Weigh on Trading Activity

Attendance also played a major role in shaping trading conditions. Visitor numbers from Israel and other Middle Eastern markets were extremely limited, largely due to travel restrictions and geopolitical considerations.

At the same time, Chinese buyer attendance was unusually low, while participation from other Asian markets was also weaker than usual. The absence of these key buying groups significantly reduced overall trading momentum across the show.

Jewellery Sector Mirrors Loose-Stone Market

The second phase of the event at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre (HKCEC) in Wanchai, which focuses on finished jewellery, reflected similar dynamics.

Jewellery featuring natural diamonds moved slowly, with limited traffic and modest order volumes. Even the final Sunday—typically one of the busiest days of the show—remained unusually quiet, reinforcing the sense that many buyers are currently taking a “wait-and-see” approach to inventory commitments.

Competitive Pressure from Other Categories

While natural diamond trading was cautious, other categories showed relatively stronger activity.

The coloured gemstone sector performed well, with buyers actively seeking rare and distinctive stones rather than standard commercial goods.

At the same time, the lab-grown diamond category continued to expand its presence, with significantly more exhibitors on the show floor and several reporting stronger booth traffic than natural diamond suppliers.

These developments underline the increasing competitive pressure on natural diamonds in certain jewellery segments—particularly at lower price points.

Macro Factors Influencing Buyer Sentiment

Several broader factors appear to be shaping the cautious tone across the market:

• Record-high gold prices, which are increasing manufacturing costs for jewellery producers
• Geopolitical tensions, including developments in the Middle East and concerns surrounding Iran
• Economic uncertainty in key consumer markets, particularly China

Together, these factors are encouraging buyers to delay purchasing decisions and manage inventory more conservatively.

What This Could Mean for Natural Diamond Traders

Despite the quieter environment, the Hong Kong shows reinforced several important signals for the natural diamond trade:

• Demand remains strongest for larger, distinctive stones and unique goods
• Commercial categories below 3 carats remain slow, with cautious inventory buying
• Retailers are increasingly prioritising rarity, storytelling and differentiation
• Global economic and geopolitical developments are playing a growing role in shaping trading behaviour

As the industry moves further into 2026, Hong Kong’s March shows suggest that the natural diamond market is entering a more selective phase, where the strongest trading opportunities will likely remain concentrated in stones that offer clear rarity, uniqueness and value differentiation.

For natural diamond traders, the months ahead will reveal whether confidence returns to the broader commercial market—or whether selective buying becomes the defining trading pattern of the year ahead.